- Agarwal had earlier predicted that the third wave of Kovid-19 would peak by the end of January.
- Aggarwal said there was a lot of concern when the Omicron variant started circulating in November last year.
- Earlier a study had shown that the third wave of the pandemic in India could peak by February 3.
New Delhi: According to a scientist at the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur (IIT-K), the third wave of the Kovid-19 epidemic in India may peak on January 23 and during this time a little less than four lakh cases of infection may be reported daily. Manindra Agrawal, a professor at IIT-Kanpur and one of the researchers involved in the ‘Formula Kovid Model’, said that already in Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata, the number of cases of infection has reached its peak in the last 7 days. The ‘Formula Covid Model’ has been used to find and estimate the number of COVID cases in the country since the start of the pandemic.
‘The number of cases may be a little less than 4 lakhs’
According to Agarwal, the cases of Kovid-19 will peak this week in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Haryana, while in states like Andhra Pradesh, Assam and Tamil Nadu they are expected to peak next week. He told, ‘The number of daily cases in India is expected to reach its peak on January 23. Then the number of these cases may remain a little less than 4 lakhs. Their numbers are already at their peak in the metros of Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata. Agarwal had earlier predicted that the third wave of Kovid-19 would peak by the end of January.
‘Estimates had to change due to ICMR guidelines’
Referring to the change in the pandemic situation, he said, “Across the country, the trajectories are changing significantly. I had earlier speculated that this happened because of the ICMR guidelines on change in testing strategy. However, at many places, these guidelines are yet to be implemented and yet, the trajectory has changed. According to a new government advisory, people doing inter-state domestic travel and coming in contact with COVID-19 need not be screened unless they are at risk due to age or various diseases.
‘There was a lot of concern when the Omicron variant started spreading’
Aggarwal said there was a lot of concern when the Omicron variant started circulating in November last year. However, he said that in the last week or so, people almost everywhere have concluded that this form causes only a ‘mild infection’ and can be dealt with through standard treatment rather than testing. Earlier, a study conducted by a separate research team at the institute had revealed that the third wave of the pandemic in India may peak by February 3.
So far 4,87,202 people have died due to corona in the country
On Wednesday, the number of new cases of Kovid-19 in India increased to 2,82,970 in a single day. Apart from this, 441 patients died. So far, a total of 3,79,01,241 people have been found infected with the corona virus in the country while 4,87,202 people have died. (Language)
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